1st November 2003, 11:23 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,366
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Quote:
On 2003-11-01 00:26, gunny72 wrote:
I have found the discussion in this thread interesting but I feel some of the analysis has a serious flaw and that is basing future bets on past results. For example using past POT as a indication for future POT and the basis of future staking strategies. One thing my years at punting has shown is that racing does not follow simple patterns and this is why most systems fail.
My idea of risk management is minimum outlay for maximum return. I have discussed my level staking ideas at length (and possibly ad nauseum) in another thread but no one has yet shown me the flaw with my analysis - other than the need for patience.
John
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Hi gunny,
You are of course correct and level staking is the least risk.
But it doesn't really cover the maximising the return part.
I'm looking at the best combination of both.
There's absolutley nothing wrong with level staking though and is the safest.
As for basing staking systems on past results....
I agree, but when you have nothing else to work with....
What I normally do is get a very large sample of results,(this is always preferable) and run a staking plan - then use a filter option on an excel spreadsheet to sort the results numerous times so that different patterns emerge.
Then you can work out "IF" the results occurred at different times or in a different order etc.
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