View Single Post
  #1  
Old 21st March 2009, 04:15 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,431
Default Back shorter => Lay longer!

Now that doesn't make sense does it?

Can't reveal why it works, but there's method in the madness.

Here's a method that's been working well but still in it's infancy....

Rules.

1. For UK racing only.
2. Take the openers from Ladbrokes (they dribble through from around 9:30pm)
3. Consider only horses opening LESS than $2.00
4. Take Betfair SP only.
5. Lay any horse opening over $1.55
6. Back any horse opening under $1.55
7. You can't just back and lay at SP giving filters without considering the Ladbrokes opening price as the first rule - very important part of it.


Back results (at betfair sp before commission):

Selections 20
Winners 18
Strike Rate 90.00
Return $25.10
P/L $5.10
POT 25.50

Lay results (at betfair sp before commission):

Selections 26
Winners 11
Strike Rate 42.31
Return $19.31
P/L $6.69 (laying)
POT 25.73

When we combine the two:
(at betfair sp before commission):

Selections 46
P/L $11.79
POT 25.63%

Copyright © 2009



Of course more selections are needed, and I'll update this page from time to time.
46 selections is only minor. but consider the fact that they are all under $2.00 when opened by the bookies and the cutoff is $1.55 both ways.
It is a very high strike rate method (both ways)
It does have regular action, last night there were three successful lays from three and two successful backs from two.
So I copped 100% success rate on five selections.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 420,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/06/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
Reply With Quote