Hmmmm, maybe we should look at the underlying principles of weights and handicapping and and minimum weights to see what the starting point should be when looking at a starting point to calculate a rise in weight.
Quote:
HANDICAPPING PRINCIPLES AND PRACTICES WITHIN VICTORIA
Classes 1 and 2
In Class 1 events we use the base weight, or commencement weight, of 54.5kg on a 52.0kg limit. This is determined on the fundamental that if a race is limited to one win then a horse who has that win (from a few starts), and maybe a placing is usually the best horse in the race and has to be allotted 58kg (under the rules). Therefore if that form was worth on average a 3½kg increment, it follows that the "base weight" would be 54.5kg. Thus horses with better form move up from the 54.5kg and conversely those with worse form move down from this figure until the minimum is reached. The movements of weights (all things being equal) would be 2 to 3.5kg for a win, 0.5 to 1.5kg for a second, nil to 1kg for a third, little movement for a fourth and varying degrees down for all other runners according to all the usual considerations.
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http://www.rsb.net.au/publishing/RBH/Policy.htm
Seems that all things being equal, you can't put on more than 3.5 Kg and remain in the same class. If you go up a class, you aren't going to go up 3.5 kilos even if you won last start. You have to drop a class.
Lets use Lakonian as an example, and see what the handicappers are basing their weights on:
Lakonian went up 3kg on a straight weight rise, and 2.5kg from the minimum. I'm going to use the top weight as a guide to field strength.
The top weight in the 16 May race which was won by Shocking (Lakonian 2nd) was Tindal. It was a 3YO open class. So was last saturday's race, but the field strength was way down.
Pinatas was the top weight last saturday and all it had done was win a 30k mid weeker at Sandown. Tindal has won a $151K Listed race at Flem last Oct. Tindal would have way higher class ratings and that implies that the May 16 race had a stronger field strength.
So, the class of the race is the same, but the field strength is down in last Saturday's race by evidence of the records top weights in each race.
Lakonian goes up 3.0kg on account of Tindal being replaced by a lower rated top weight in Pinatas, but stays in the same class . How unfair!!! Basically the handicappers hit Lakonian just about as hard as they could
Re performance: Lakonian gained almost 3 lengths on the leaders in the last 200, was 3 wide for most of the race and was left flat footed around the turn before taking trhem on. Basically a crumby race, all round. Had it been with the leaders and fell back a bit, I could see weight being a factor. Lakonian has won with 57. Who knows.
The winner, Rock Home Late, also went up 3 kg in almost identical circumstances. Go figure.