4th April 2010, 09:37 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,367
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I'm working on pretty much exactly what you outlined except for the weight carried.
I have over 10 million horse runs in a database, and am currently looking at rating horses as follows...
Take the track record over each distance and each going.
Take the actual race time of the last race.
Convert the winner's time to a rating off the same record.
For each horse, by beaten lengths, calculate the time off track record.
In ths way, I can line up a 1200m Dead race at Rosehill with a 1400m Good race at Randwick.
A clear picture should emerge of horses rated by time ranking.
I will be using actual individual saddle transponder info to convert the beaten lengths over various distances to time.
So no standard par or set formulae, as they change depending on pace, distance and going.
Rough initial testing finds that this method of time handicapping is fine regardless of the weight carried.
I know many will throw up their hands at this, but the figures seem to suggest that weight is a fairly insignificant factor.
Perhaps over the real distance races, it has a bigger impact, but the shorter sprints seem to suggest, that weight is minor.
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