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Old 2nd February 2004, 12:22 PM
sportznut sportznut is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Queensland
Posts: 2,266
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Okay Jimmy, here's what I got from my results. Unfortunately this is only back to Nov20 but these figures are pretty similar to other tests I've done in the past. These are only the races that I bet on (no WA, no Tassie and no provincial races on Saturday). Sorry about that! I also used $3-$7 because that is what I use in most of my betting.

No 2yo or races less than 1200m.
At least 8 starters after scratchings.
In first 4 at each of last 3 starts.
At least 3 starts since a spell.
$3 to $7 pre-post.
Inside or outside barrier.

Okay, now for the results. For those that still think that barrier one should be more profitable than the outside barrier, maybe this just might change your thinking a bit!

All selections: 159
wins 31, return $148.50, loss 7%
places 93, return $170.30, profit 7%

Inside barriers only: 88
wins 14, return $54.10, loss 38%
places 48, return $80.00, loss 10%

Outside barriers only: 71
wins 17, return $94.40, profit 33%
places 45, return $90.30, profit 27%

Inside barriers (metro): 35
wins 5, return $24.20, loss 31%
places 15, return $25.60, loss 27%

Outside barriers (metro): 30
wins 5, return $40.00, profit 33%
places 17, return $32.90, profit 10%

Inside barriers (country/prov): 53
wins 9, return $29.90, loss 45%
places 33, return $54.40, profit 3%

Outside barriers (country/prov): 41
wins 12, return $54.40, profit 33%
places 28, return $57.40, profit 40%

So there you go. You can do okay if you simply look for horses priced at $3-$7 from the outside barrier which have finished in the first 4 at their last 3 starts in this preparation. In the test period it picked up a few good priced winners like Fiery Femme 8.60, This Manshood 10.40, Wild Classic 8.80, Crimson Gown 13.00 and Aurora Anora 7.70. I've always liked backing in form horses from the outside barrier, so I think I might give this a go. I'll still concentrate mainly on the 'specials' though.

By the way, for those that might have been wondering, here's a comparison of how the barrier system 'specials' would go if you used the inside barrier instead of the outside. I think you'll see why I prefer to use the outside barrier:

Outside barriers: 22
wins 8, return $35.00, profit 59%
places 21, return $35.40, profit 61%

Inside barriers: 16
wins 3, return $8.60, loss 46%
places 12, return $17.70, profit 11%

There you go. Hope all that was of some help! :smile:


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-02-02 17:49 ]
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