Quote:
|
Originally Posted by partypooper
ok Lomaca, know exactly what you are saying, this is what I did.
there was 21 bets, all differing prices , I hypothetically bet each individual one to win 100 so...
paying 1.5 bet = 67
paying 2.4 bet = 42
paying 1.89 bet =53
etc etc etc.
now all those 21 bets added up to 1095,
there were 13 successes so 1300 returned i.e. profit of 205
whereas at levels 21 bets returned 22.83
I sat bolt upright at about 3am convinced the reason was just that particular set of selections, i.e. on another day if more of the failures were paying say like 1.23, 1.34, etc etc then the situation could be reversed.
In other words on this particular set of selections, most of the failures were paying $2+ so the amount bet was less than 50% so you lost less on them than you would have done at levels, so I got some sleep, BUUUUT,
going over it again, it appears that that is wrong cos the amount won on the winners was more than at levels overall as the amount bet was greater....... shucks I'm still confused!
|
As said Party, you can't calculate the average POT like that.
Doesn't matter if you bet to return a $100 or to win a $100.
You must work on average return/bet if you want to work out your POT like this.
What's happening is that the outlay on your non winning bets and the winning bets are not equal and are distorting the the POT.
If you really want see that it is so, do a running tests like you just did, calculated with new selections and results added on every day.
You will see that the POT will change from day to day despite the fact that you bet to the same $100 return, it simply depends what price runners happen to win.
If you calculate all the individual POTs and add them up and divide them by the number of bets you will find that it will be the same, (virtually the same, because of some rounding off effect by not betting fractions) no matter whether you bet level stakes or to set return.
I know it's hard to conceptualise because we calculate POT on money out money in but trust me, in the long run you will find that it will come close to the sum of (POT/number of bets) of the individual runners.
What you can do is to find the price range where the return is negative and eliminate them.
I am 99.9999% sure I'm right in this but if some one can prove me wrong I cheerfully admit it.
Good luck