
3rd November 2010, 07:37 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 2,426
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OK, now the crunch, I applied all of the above to a data base that I have for favs less than 3-1 (for the place)
2338 bets .1621 hits,= 69.33%, Rets 2281 loss of 80 units =POT(3.42%) at level stakes
now betting to prices (to return 1 unit per race)
Total bet = 1666 Rets 1621, loss of 45 units = POT (2.7%) in theory a slight improvement, but alas not what was promised,
and just in case some were getting excited, none of the above took into account the BF 5% commission.
As matter of interest backing best tote (i.e no commission) the returns were 2321.75 for a loss of only 16.25 units or .69%
I am expecting Lomacas figure to confirm that (or worse if he includes all favs regardless of price)
So in conclusion, I guess I have confirmed 2 things that I have always preached : NO staking plan will turn a loss into a profit (not even backing to prices)
And also at this end of the market Best Tote knocks the pants off Bet fair.
Hope you all found some of this interesting
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