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Old 5th November 2010, 01:24 PM
lomaca lomaca is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
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Quote:
Originally Posted by partypooper
Lomaca,.the 50% above 1/4 win odds requirement cuts the vast majority of those out

Another valid point is that I presume your box of tricks there is calculating at Supertab odds? fine for the exercise but my figures show about an 8% improvement when backing at best tote.
Yes Party I only can test with Supertab odds.

But I can categorically say that betting to prices does not work if you have long outs and if your winning prices are near 8 to 10 $.

If anyone interested I ran the neurals CP second selection (the second highest ranking) where the TAB win price was 20% higher than the Neurals rated price for the neural CP horse, and it finished up with $214.60 profit on level stakes and a whopping -$5011.10 loss by betting to return $100.

What happened is that at one stage there were 30 outs and some prices were relatively low, so while the level outlay lost only $30.00 the proportional part went down by nearly $1800.00

On top of it, when it started winning again the odds were in the region of $6 to $18.00 and the outlay to get back $100 was comparatively small.
Therefore the proportional part never recovered.

Since my selections are mostly in this region I certainly keep away from betting to return an amount.

If your selections are winning at level stakes you'd be robbing yourself by limiting your outlay on the higher priced horses.

I don't quite understand your reference to " place 1/4 win odds + 50%," 50% of what?

could you make at bit clearer for me please

Thanks
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