
5th November 2010, 02:02 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 2,426
|
|
G'day Lomaca, thanks for all the work you've done on that, the $30 loss at levels and $5000 betting to 100 is much greater than I thought but still confirms the concept.
Now for the place thing, here's an example
The nag in question is rated at $3 i.e. 2-1 TO WIN, so divide the win odds by 4 =.5 x 50% (overlay req.) = .75 add your stake back on so $1.75c is the minimum odds I will accept for a place on this nag.
Of course the overlay reqd. is your choice 20%, 50%, 100% etc., but I find 50% (for place bets) works best, and also cuts out many of those shorties.
Eg. Today Ipswich R1-5 rated $1.55 so min place reqd is .55/4x1.5=1 =$1.23c (FOR THE PLACE)
max available = $1.19 so NO BET
race 2-4 rated $1.80c so .8/4x1.5+1 = $1.30 min reqd. $1.36 easily available so its a bet! (FOR THE PLACE)
Not brilliant examples as both were odds on and running in races with less than 8 runners so you could argue that you should divide the win odds by 3 in these cases but that's another argument, but
you get the idea?
|