5th November 2010, 02:42 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 1,096
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by partypooper
G'day Lomaca, thanks for all the work you've done on that, the $30 loss at levels and $5000 betting to 100 is much greater than I thought but still confirms the concept.
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Actually in the end it won on level stakes about $220 or so, the 30 was only during the run of outs. the problem with this sort of staking is that it restricts you to win the set amount when winning, but still spend big when losing, real stooopid!
Quote:
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Originally Posted by partypooper
Now for the place thing, here's an example
The nag in question is rated at $3 i.e. 2-1 TO WIN, so divide the win odds by 4 =.5 x 50% (overlay req.) = .75 add your stake back on so $1.75c is the minimum odds I will accept for a place on this nag.
Of course the overlay reqd. is your choice 20%, 50%, 100% etc., but I find 50% (for place bets) works best, and also cuts out many of those shorties.
Eg. Today Ipswich R1-5 rated $1.55 so min place reqd is .55/4x1.5=1 =$1.23c (FOR THE PLACE)
max available = $1.19 so NO BET
race 2-4 rated $1.80c so .8/4x1.5+1 = $1.30 min reqd. $1.36 easily available so its a bet! (FOR THE PLACE)
Not brilliant examples as both were odds on and running in races with less than 8 runners so you could argue that you should divide the win odds by 3 in these cases but that's another argument, but
you get the idea?
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Got it, in your earlier post you put it as "+ 50%" that's what confused me, mind you, I'm easily confused at the best of times!
Thanks for clearing that up.
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