So perhaps then it's the probabilty of the punter getting it right ?
Emmm, dare I say, the, bookies seem to get it right more often than the punters ?
The rest follow...won't go into that one but the market does have it's odd days (the enigma of the "bias phenomenon")might throw things way out of proportion.
another one for the equation...therefore a % of random to think about,33.3%'s of fav's, your own strike rate, etc etc.