27th January 2011, 10:01 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,091
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Darkydog2002, I’ve already nominated you for system of theYear !!
I’ve looked at many strategies for picking winners over the years and have come up with some that do exceptionally well, until the run of outs. When I say exceptionally well, I’m talking several winners in a short space of time (7 or 8 races) of over 10 / 1 and these come up regularly ….. then the run of outs.
The best staking method I’ve come up with to maximise any decent run is an all up method. Your next five bets would be A, B, C, D & E. You would go all up on ABC, ABD, ABE, BCD, BDE and CDE. So you need to back 3 winners in any “group” of 5 bets.
I’m now refining (not too much) a couple of systems that select a horse that will win in the next couple of runs. The basis behind this is my 100 reasons why a horse lost !!
The selection revolves around several different criteria but generally spotting a lightly raced horse with ablity.
- A lightly raced horse who has raced against top fields in at least one run last preparation. This shows that the trainer thinks it has ability. A horse who’s first up run had an excuse, (ie: ran on unsuitable ground), then was put out for a spell.
- A horse with less than a dozen or so runs going into a spell with really good form. eg:
- Second up I’ve found is where the most dramatic improvement can come from, far removed from the old adage of give them a miss second up.
Western Beau Won at 40/1 over 1200. Listed 3yo set weights.
121s0 5-2-2-0 3c M C Connors
Herald sun comments. “Outclassed last time but has won second up and no surprise to see him improve.”
Fiveoclockshadow WON @ $22.30
210s9 4-1-1-0 3c Nerissa Cowell (Eagle Farm)
Ran 12th in the GR 1 TJ Smith over 1600 “so they think he can go the 1600” said Simon Marshall.
Causeway Queen Won paid $18.70 at Caulfield
111s0 12-7-0-1 4m A Vasil
HS “Gave nothing first up. Tested” It had previously won over 2100 in TAS.
Hassle Won paying $26.90
716s0 30-6-2-6 6g JR Hawkes
HS “Struck unsuitable soft ground when resuming and is better suited here”.
I have many examples of this oversight by punters.
- What am I missing here !?!? Find a nag with a really good strike rate, better if the form is interstate or NZ, back it if over 4 / 1. Delete any horse that has brilliant two year old form on the basis it has had it’s guts run out of it.
Can someone tell me if the Dark Horse system still proclaims to win ?
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