darky,

I like your style and thinking. This post won't be noticed by many as it doesn't contain the big winners but I believe your system contains the most important aspects of being a winner.

1. You are using a tried and tested rating system (don scott's) to come up with logical horse selections.

2. You are finding selections that have a very good chance of winning. Odds on don scott ratings have a very good strike rate.

3. You are looking for value. (Must be higher then rated odds at $2 minimum)


That is all that is needed to grind out a profit. The one thing your missing though is numbers to back you up. So here you go:

For $1.99 and less don scott rating before scratchings and starting at $2 or higher :

486 selections for betfair return of $487 - $517

I think your a little too loose in your selections and I would propose you tighten up frm a 50% expectd win rate to those with better then a 66% chance of winning. This would be 1.50 or less :

202 selectons for a betfair return of $248 - $264

To the lurkers : Of course I could point you to the best exact cutoff but you need to work something out for yourself. BTW $1.50 is not the best cut off point. I'll tell you this though, the right cutoff produces a 66% profit and a 30% profit on tote figures.

Darky, I'll send you an email with the right cutoff point.

Good Luck.