11th February 2011, 08:43 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 1,601
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I use systems (no surprise there) and make a good profit every year.
It can be done. Well researched selections with a high probability of winning are the best ways to make a profit in my opinion. The only issue is most peoples systems are not well researched or aimed at high probability selections.
For instance I can bet overlays that are $100 when they should be $50 but thats just a difference of 1% in the chance of winning. If my selection technique has an error rate great then 1% I am going to lose long term.
On the other hand if my selection is $4 and I classed it as a $2 chance (same as above double the money to what was estimated) then I have estimated a 50% chance of winning and the market has given me odds of 25%. Thats a 25% difference. My technique on ratings can now be 25% off before I would lose long term. Also my run of outs on a $4 selection overlay vs $100 overlay is a lot less and won't hit me pschologically.
Things to think about.
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