Supersoul,

I agree that different jockeys will have different strike rates and therefore the chances of a particular jockey winning the next race is based on their strike rate (not the overall strike rate for all jockeys). So Beadman's chance of riding a placegetter is say 60% while an apprentice may have only a 10% chance. Of course in reality it is more complex than that and the chances for a particular race are not going to be the same (eg. Beadman riding a favourite has a better chance than Beadman riding a long-shot).

What I was saying was that if Beadman has had 5 misses in a row then the chances on the sixth horse are still say 60% - they do not go up to 80 or 90% just so he can maintain his average for the week. My point is that whether a jockey wins/places in a race can be treated as a "chance" outcome with a probability determined by THEIR skill level (which you should be able to work out from THEIR past strike rate).

Hope this clears it up.