Thread: An observation
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Old 12th May 2011, 11:07 AM
beton beton is offline
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Fred
some things that i have noticed in looking at the favorite breakdowns are as follows. 3rd,4th,5th and 6th favorite s/rs are quite constant 14% 10% 7.5% & 5% plus or minus 1%. This is constant in field size track conditions etc. The second fav has a strike rate of 20% plus or minus 2%. It mirrors the first fav in increasing when the field size drops and decreasing with more runners.
Similarly when the track surface improves there is a higher strike rate in both the fav and the second fav. But still within that plus or minus 2%. The fav is about 32% plus or minus 4%. As more runners present the 1st and 2nd fav drop off whereas the other runners strike rates still stay constant.

THE ONLY FACTOR THAT CHANGES THE STRIKE RATES OF ALL HORSES IN ANY SIGNIFICANT MANNER IS PRICE. The shorter the fav is - the higher his strike rate (exceeding 80%) The shorter the second fav's price is the higher it's strike rate (exceeding 40%) Where both the fav =<$2 and 2nd fav are =<$3 they have the market, the kudos and the glory. When the fav price exceeds $3 then its strike rate and that of the second fav deminishes and the the strike of the 3-4-5 &6 fav come to their constant and increases.

In looking at the 3rd fav in six. a number of short favs fell over. These were maiden races. Hence I would be working this info into any laying longshot system.
Beton
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