Thread: Please help
View Single Post
  #15  
Old 19th December 2011, 05:04 AM
aussielongboat aussielongboat is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 258
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bhagwan
Hi Vortech,

One thing I found when running multiple systems at once, was that much greater percentage POT was made by not doubling up on selections , picked 2 or more times by the various systems.

We dont want to make the assumption that just because a Horse is picked twice that it has twice the chance of winning.

There 2 ways of looking at that final elimination method.
1. On the one had you could say that it seemed to work because your systems were inherently no good .
This is because the selection and systems are mutually exclusive- if they come up they should be backed no matter what. I mean – that’s how the system was generated - by its own individual performance. In real time by reducing that element of the outlay all you were doing was delaying the inevitable.

2. BUT on the other hand (in support )you could say that if your systems had picked the same selection(s) independently multiple times it was probably coming up on many other punters systems and thus would be over bet. By dropping it off you removed the so called “certainties” and thus increased your overall win price dividend because as we all know “certainties” sometimes don’t work out that way.


My conclusion as to which way was most reflective of the true situation would be determined by asking “where are the systems now.”
If they are in the trash can of broken dreams it would be “1” if they are somewhat alive it could be “2”
Cheers

Aussie
Reply With Quote