10th January 2012, 04:14 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,437
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As I understand it, categorising is probably the confusing term here.
I think an actual to expected ratio could be what woof's implying (I could be wrong).
This information is calculated by working out the actual / expected ratio for each parameter. The actual / expected ratio is like an enhanced Impact Value which takes into the account the price of each horse.
You can work out the actual / expected ratio (A/E) by dividing the actual number of winners by the expected number of winners. The expected number of winners is worked out with the following formula:
Expected Winners=sum of all 'odds' where odds=1 / (SP + 1)
If you exclude any bookies over-round for now, then the odds of each runner is 1 / (SP + 1). An Evens shot is therefore expected to win 0.50 of the time, whilst a 3/1 shot is expected to win 0.25 of the time. If we had 100 3/1 shots, then we would expect 25 of them to win (100 * 0.25).
The A/E ratio can be used to show how efficient a parameter is. A figure of 1.00 means 'as expected'. A figure less than 1.00 means not as expected.
In situations where the figure is above 1.00 this means that the parameter is being underbet by the public.
Figures below 1.00 indicate that the parameter is being overbet by the public and is not winning as often as it should.
There are flaws contained within, you cannot account for unknown differences, you can only identify underbet or overbet by joe public.
I abandoned this, because the unknown factors are more than three times the influence on price, than the known factors.
Using the above can identify what market order should be and even price, but does not account for the most important factor of all.
The fluctuations in betting.
The differences are quite apparent when you take all favourites at Top Fluctuation, drifters at TF, and Firmers at TF.
This is exactly why, bookmakers won't let you take TF on firmers once the betting has commenced.
Joe Public has been betting on this horse, but Joe Private has lumped ten times the amount on the same horse for reasons that aren't in any database, formguide or video.
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