Well, didn’t you all get your collective gonads in a knot, and talk about thin skinned. Reminds me of my last husband who split his prepuce on our honeymoon ……….. but that’s another story.

The following is intended to make you think ……….. no correspondence will be entered into.

OK ……. let’s start from Square One.

Now I’m going to use the general thrust of the “crash” system as an example … NOT to ridicule him, just to show you the drawbacks of this sort of idea that pops up from time to time.

We’ll look at the “place total of last 4 starts to be less than 9” first.

What’s wrong with this ?

In general, nothing. However, what it does is to exclude horses that have had a bad run in the last 4. Yes, occasionally they do get boxed in, or jump awkwardly, jock drops his whip etc etc. Consider a formline that reads 1 1 0 1 …… the horse gets excluded on the basis of the Rule of 9 whereas a horse that has 1 2 3 3 is included, and in any event the 0 may well represent being beaten 1 len in a blanket finish.

Why not give the horse the benefit of the doubt and let it have one bad run in 4 ………. so why not use Best 3 of Last 4 places less than, say, 6 or 7 or 8 ??????

Why use Place at all ????

First is of course 0.0 Beaten Distance but 2nd is anywhere from 0.1 len to 10 len and 3rd has an even greater range. Place is a trap for young players.

I recommend you use Beaten Distance. This way you pick up a horse with a formline that reads 4836 where it hasn’t been further than 0.5 len from the winner on any occasion.

Look at the stats (yes I know you hate them) for days since last start (and how the distance the horse ran at its last start affects the results), change of distance, runs from a spell, where has it been racing and so on and on and on and on

But please, please, please don’t spend your time and money looking for or betting on a “system” that is coincidence dependant.

Someone remarked that even though the stats are against them they would look for and ride a winning streak.

What is a “streak” …3, 4, 5, or more wins in succession ? How do you know when the streak has started …. after 2 wins (?) so you start betting and find out that it has stopped after 3 wins, and you’re down the tube again ……….. if anyone knows a way to tell when a run of heads (in coin tossing) will start OR stop then let me know and I’ll pay handsomely.

Using SP as a “system” filter ……….. go for your life and you’ll miss yesterdays nice one and today’s “Painted Pure” at $20.50, and Romantic Springs at $10.90 … both my top rated horses. Sure, decide for yourself (on the basis of value) if you want to bet at the price, but don’t use it built into your method.

Anyway, time for me to trot off to give the “fiscal fiend” his 4 hours of mainframe magic. As I said ……….. think, and don’t get upset .... it's only money.

F.