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Old 20th April 2004, 09:27 AM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 3,456
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Woof....the thing you are missing is there is a lot more to form than just where a horse finished in its last race or even its last 3 races.....let me explain the way i would read a horses form.
First thing i look at the finished lenghts of its last 4 runs i don't care what position it finished in just how far back it was i look at the type of race it was in the class of race the weight it carried and the track condition....then i try to compare it with the rest of the field maybe the horse has had a couple of bad runs it may have been wet and the horse doesn't like the wet....it has been wet in Sydney over easter so you might see some form reversals when it dries up....other reasons for bad runs in racing out of class....some horses can only perform in thier class level this is another thing you need to look at.....maybe it carried to much weight last time in.....most horses that win at big odds if you look more closely at thier form after the race you can often see why they won.....you have to also remember that some horses gain condition more quickly than others meaning they can win first up or second up...others need time there are patterns in a horses form you need to look at maybe after say 2 runs they improve very quickly you can often see this if you look at there races....the reasons favs don't win more than 30% of races it that people over estimate the best horse in the race and underestimate the next 4 or 5 and you have to remember that all important factor the jockey.....why did the $1.30 fav Lohnro not win the Jock says he stuffed up....if he had gone earlier on him would he have beet Grand Armee who knows....but if you had looked at Gran Armees last couple of runs and the prices the horse had started at the horse was underestinated at all 3 starts the horese had a preety impressive record...but just came up against a better horse on the day....the truth is most people don't really read the form and the bookies have to set a market so they make money other wise they may have 5 horses under 5 dollars you won't see that the tab prices are just the opinion of illinformed people.....do you really think the that people that make money out of backing winners put thier money on at the tab....don't think so....to you question does form exist.....you bet it does....but how you understand the form that you are reading depends on the individual....every one reads form differently....who is right and who is wrong....well at the end of the day or year whe ever has the most money is the winner....thats how you know
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