
24th May 2012, 10:51 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 589
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Thanks Chrome Prince and Shaun. I will try to sort out the charts first. Once I have done that I will meet you Shaun for a quick chat. I am assuming that you are based in Perth. We will need you Chrome Prince once we test the plan.
Mark thanks for your comments Quote "I may be wrong, but you appear to be looking at the longer the price the bigger the payout or the bigger the liability. if this is true, you won't last a week. For layers, the profit is in laying the shorter priced runners." Unquote. I am not trying to do this. I am trying to follow your advice. (1) Lay to a target amount. Your earlier post a couple of months ago was to lay the fav to pay $120 the second fav for a bit less etc and then lay the remainder to pay $100. (2) in another post you say to make a book. This is what I am trying to do. I am also trying to combine these into an automated system. The high laying liability is only a result of having a target payout figure of $100.
Instead of just accepting the available odds at the time of placing the laybet I am saying that in the case of the third fav "When the odds of the first fav is between $2 and 2.50 and there are ony 8 runners, historically the third has only won 13.8% of the time. Thus I am only going to lay an amount that reflects a 13.8% SR ($7.24 0r $6.24 lay liability). If the third fav is only paying $5 then this is unders and we will be laying more on this horse than we would have if we had been just targetting $100. Similarly if the third was paying $8.50, this would be overs and we have limited our exposure. Overall having more on the unders and less on the overs and a 100% market. In each price range the fav is always under"
Instead of looking at one race and finding profit, I am looking at 100 races and finding profit. Hopefully with a little in every race. I fully understand that the majority of the profits are in the shorter end that is why we will set up with Plan 2 first.
My database says that no horse more than 17th rank has won. But it is still possible so we limit the max liability to 1 in 200. Past 10th rank there are very few winners. Once I have compiled my charts I will address this end. I am definately not trying to boost this end. I may even have to restrict this end to restrict the liability because it is scary.
I hope this clears up my thought pattern. I welcome all comments because I would sooner be shot now than shot financially.
Beton
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