Actually I have been trialling the use of a set of rated prices to find overlays that I plan to lay, testing so far has yielded around 1600 selections for a 95% lay strike rate with average winner (or loser in this case) around $9. I have been testing since December 2011 and will start live betting at the end of the month.

My thoughts were like most peoples in that overlays were the key to value and therefore profits when backing but I soon found that the market is a much better guide and I found that horses starting as "unders" had a better winning strike rate and lost less than those that would have been considered "overs" or value.

Of course not all overlays are bad value, I have introduced a few filters to maximise the layability of selections but it has made me re-think the notion of "always bet the value selections".

Cheers,

Mat.