4th May 2004, 08:27 PM
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Suspended
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 5,359
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An example is AFL round-7.
I pick Essendon by 33 pts which I consider to be a $1.20 chance.$1.25 available.
Sydney to win by 40 pts. which is $1.15 and there is $1.20 available.
Both bets are equal overs,but my margins tell me that Sydney is the better bet.
By betting to my percentage chance I would in fact have slightly more on Sydney.
In reality the overs are too small,so I won't in fact be betting here but I do have St.Kilda to win by 17 points which equates to $1.44 with $2.10 being available.
This could be the situation where I may have overlooked something.
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