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Old 23rd October 2012, 10:41 AM
Barny Barny is offline
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For Country events; Try a horse that's had at least two runs in, has career sts of say 10 to 20 or thereabouts, hasn't started for more than 28 days = Freshened (this is a big turn off), and has career wins of between 2 and 4. I've underlined the important factors.

By keeping the more popular filters out, you're actually increasing the odds on others. The thinking behind this is that the horse is overdue for a win, and surely the trainer wouldn't put it out for more than 28 days, bring it back if it wasn't fit !!

For Metro; Try a horse that's had 2 or 3 runs back, career sts 10 to 20 (still got some improvement), is going up to a distance that it either hasn't run at before or hasn't won at before. The "d" being important is a myth.

For Metro & Country; You could try backing a horse that's backing up within 4 to 6 days, and is increasing in weight from it's last start.

With all of the above, obviously one of your filters will be $10 to $20. There will be winners in this price range. If you can seek out an "Unpopular" filter that logically fits, then you've increased your odds ..... Stands to reason !!, coz the popular filters will decrease the odds to a point where they're overbet, so the balance has to be that the odds of horses with unpopular fitlers / form will increase in similar proportion to the decrease of the odds of those with popular filters.
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