Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
So you have 2 horses with equal chances and another 4 with some sort of Chance.
Then you have the possible Unknowns.
I would have your 4 possible upsets at $12
The 2 Main Chances at $3.30
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Here is my problem, note, I said mine. On my past history their is no way I can accurately rate a horses winning chance based on what I think others do. I have as much confidence with a $7 or bigger then I do with a $3 to $4 shot.
Obviously, I rate horses differently to everybody else, if rate is the correct word, which I think in my case it is not.
What I think id the correct pricing does not really matter, what matters is that the price I get pays for the losses along the way plus a bit left over to pay the bills.
Picking winners is not my major Number One issue, getting an insufficient return for my strike rate is. The shorter the price the more winners I need, and I cannot see, on my past form, how I can achieve that.
But that is just me and at the moment I am speaking from my high horse, but realise I can get thrown at any time, but providing I can get a strike rate of 5% I do not need a zillion winners, Just one in twenty.
Pete