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Originally Posted by gunny72
Some of my observations.
It is a waste of effort worrying about first up and second up. I recently spoke to a trainer who pointed out that these days most horses have a couple of barrier trials prior to racing and are generally quite fit when fresh. These horses give better odds because of the old beliefs about first starters.
It is really difficult to assess a field accurately and come up with meaningful overs on a regular basis. The only punters who achieve a good return this way appear to have a large staff to help and rely on relatively small returns with massive outlays. I think setting a minimum price is just as good like nothing under average odds which is about $7.
I believe punters have to think outside the square and develop an individual strategy forgetting about trying to refine the well tried factors which just lead to bankruptcy by a thousand cuts.
It is extremely difficult to achieve a profitable one bet strike rate better than 10%. When UB had his site up I tested lots of combinations of factors and generally only got a +POT only with 10% methods.
My contribution to elimination ideas is to subtract api rank from actual weight rank and eliminate horses if the answer is minus 3 or worse.
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Gunny's reply above is very timely for me. Because I am up to loss number 16 with my $7 dollar minimum price sequence betting. You could say I was losing my nerve after looking at my strike rate which is now down to 8%.
I am thinking that luck was on my side when that $44 winner came at bet 18 in the previous sequence and having $8 on it gave me a handsome buffer. I have checked my records since early November and have made a profit of $450 which has been withdrawn.
The majority of this come from two massive returns and then a dribble back by only a hundred cuts or so. It is not the twenty loss streak that bothers me that much but the fact that I do not like those bets all on within a few hours. The time taken up sitting infront of a computer can turn you into a recluse and their are a lot of other important things that have to be done that seem to be neglected.
An Automated bot is not my answer because I have a dodgy telephone exchange and the internet drops out quite often and I have to refresh, We know it is in the Telstra land line as the condition has a name. It only affects the internet not telephone calls.
It is frustrating that you think you can sniff out
" nice little earner " as Arthur was wont to say, but these little inconveniences seem to be placed infront of you.
This punting game ain't easy.
Pete