Originally Posted by evajb001

I'm struggling a bit to make sense of it but I'll have a crack at an explanation.

The horizontal axis is the tote price of the favourite? Correct
The vertical axis is the chance each favourite has of winning based on the moving scale of the price of the favourite (horizontal axis)? Correct

So essentially in a 5 horse race the chances of all 5 horses winning are virtually equal when the favourite has odds of $3.70, correct? Wrong, it just indicates that during the sampling period there has never been a $3.70 1st Fav in a 5 horse field, nor at $3.20. The range with most stats is betweem $1.40 and $2.90. There has been a 3 cell SMA applied to the lines.

It's strange that it has so many spikes, I thought with 3 years of data it would all be relatively smooth charts. Although there probably haven't been many 5 horse races in that time either.