One more insight on this and then I'm off for a kip..

It comes from the same Berkeley article you alude to in Post 1, RP(did you even read 4. Concluding Remarks OR just look at the pics ?!)

All models suffer from favorite - longshot bias i.e. the probability of finishing second or third is overestimated for horses which have a high probability of winning and underestimated for those which have a low probability of winning.

Kind of makes sense when you think about it, or maybe it doesn't?

Good night.

LG

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The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB