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Old 14th August 2013, 09:48 AM
beton beton is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Magister Ludi
As you can see, the competitiveness index (ci) is a race metric.

Question: does a 7:1 horse (for example) perform differently in a highly competitive race as opposed to a highly uncompetitive race?
Thanks for your explanation Magister Ludi. This raises more questions.
Firstly we are adjusting to a 100% market. What odds are we starting with? Our ratings? PP? Open? T Fluc? SP? The key here is to square the normalised odds, hence the more lower odds, along with the sharper they are, load one side of the equation. This is then balanced or mellowed by the number runners.

So what is the effect of a one horse race (Black Caviar) in a field of 15, vs a 2 horse race (say $2.50 and $3) vs a 3 horse race or an even field?

Are we not comparing the value of our selection in comparison to all the other runners?

It is just as well that I can still go outside, pick up the tractor and put it on my shoulders and carry it up to the top paddock.

I look forward to the next instalment. It makes a welcome change from the naysayers and the "I have the holy grail but you have to find yourself" posters that we have had the pleasure (sic) to endure of late.
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