I'm just saying that's the bookies predication. It's just the best estimate they can come up with.

"They are very astute business men."

Yeh and I'm from mars...:smile:

"Typically stuff the bookies did not factor in,and never will."

That is not the only way to beat the bookies, and is actually more difficult. In more inefficient markets such as AFL or NRL, it's simply easier to utilize exisiting information better than the bookies do.