There is more.
The handicapper has taken history and in his mind he has evened up the field.
You are taking that same history and trying to prove him wrong. You can only do that with what comes after the handicapping. The draw and what has happened between the last race and this one.

The first is incorporated in most ratings, and is reflected in the PP. and the second is usually reflected in the openers. Furthermore if you take any price range of the fav, you will find even money less the TAB rake. Meaning that Joe Public is on the money.

Thus if you don't use the money, you are on your own.