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Quote:

Originally Posted by darkydog2002

Hi Paul,

Whats your take on betting Double overlays exclusively?

Cheers
darky

Hi darky,

Personally I do not price all the runners and look to bet "the overs". There are major Syndicates operating in Australia that are struggling to win with that model and they employ the best technology and dozens of people so the average punter stands no chance. So no I do not suggest that you attempt to back "Double overlays exclusively". In any case you need strong evidence to support the notion that your prices are accurate enough so as to uncover potential bets that fit the notion of a double overlay. From my experience they sometimes exist but are rare.

When looking at the form in an effort to find a suitable bet, I am mainly concerned with analysing those factors that I know are a market weaknesses. Some of these are basic factors that are obvious from the form guide, while others involve more complex intelligence such as speed ratings and other factors that I call my profile factors. For the most part, I totally ignore many of the factors that the majority of other punters consider important because the market already values them correctly. I have identified some of these on this forum in previous posts.

When I decide to bet I am doing so on the basis that the horse in question fits into a group of horses that are undervalued by the market sufficiently to return a satisfactory profit. This does not mean that I am applying a fixed set of rules as most races present a range of competing variables that require a fair amount of subjective analysis to be made. That is where the art of form study and a comprehensive knowledge of betting math/science is required.

So in summary it's the combination of variables that are incorrectly valued by the market that make the bet profitable. As part of that process I tune into the markets intelligence when determining my final win & place probabilities.