29th October 2013, 07:55 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 589
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Rinconpaul
Take "Ima Secret", the winner. Original Pre Post price was $21 but that was based on a 170% overround. By the time you increase the % share of the field to make up for the four scratchings (in red) and then reduce the % to a 118% overround the Pre Post is now $12.55. Big jump from the $21 that it started off in the paper.
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Now I am confused. I agree with your first part. You have 170% field and 4 don't start. So their chances are divided pro rata to the remainder. Their chances increase and their prices reduce.
The next part you reduce their 170% chances down to 118% chances. So for Tab#1, adjusted Prepost % 14.45%. By ( 118/170.65) 0.6914 =9.99% A 9.99% chance is $10. Or am I completely wrong. 170% going to 118% should be increasing in price. |