Darky.

Can't help but think that you are right regards the 'lottery aspect' of punting that you have referred to elsewhere, but this can work for us I think (if not for 'the crowd'). What if we turned it all around. What if we started off with the assumption* that everything in this game is completely random, unless proven to be otherwise. Assume nothing?

We could focus on a single aspect e.g. the SP favorite on the tote has the same chance as any other horse in a Sat - metro handicap race. Then stick 1 unit on the nose per selection - a lay bet on the basis that any horse running has a equal chance of winning the race(not just the favorite on the tote?). Record each outcome as you go. See what happens.

In other words..
1. Assume nothing
2. Pick something most punters believe to be true
3. Pick a specific example of this
4. Assume that everyone else is wrong
5. Test - trial the opposite case x 100 trials

Thoughts, gentlemen?

Cheers LG


* as opposed to beginning with a personal hunch or racing myth = what everyone knows to be true or what you suspect to be true etc etc

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The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB