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Quote:

Originally Posted by woof43

Just reading the above statement, if you think about how ppl generally calculate their avg. payoff. Maybe that part of their wagering equation is flawed from the get go.

From the 'evidence' of the ratio of successful and unsucessful punters one could say that sadly most punters wagering is flawed in some way or another.

The more I learn about this game the more Im convinced that in the scheme of importance a successful system is a distant second important factor. The mental frame is first and of foremost importance. Everyone can loose with a flawed system, most punters however can't even win with a profitable one.

Firstly most punters don't have a profitable method in the first place as most are working of poorly researched and tested evidence.
Secondly even if the evidence was there they wouldn't believe it anyway and expect that it will fail at some stage. It must, can't possibly continue.
Thirdly most punters expectation is centered around unrealistic forecasts fostered by most of the industry and well meaning colleagues that don't disclose the full picture and generally only talk about the good times.

When the Third doesn't happen, (in good time), the Second point comes up and it is concluded that the First has happened and its time to move on. The interesting part of the exercise is that most will then employ the exact same methods to obtain the next best thing and expect different results.

What most punters don't realise is that their frame of mind is one of the most important of tools they have; if they subconsciously approach their betting with the disbelief of winning, how on earth would their conscious mind prove its brother wrong. Self sabotage is abundant as a result. Ever did something while punting that you knew you shouldn't (in the light of clear thinking) but you did it anyway? Chased losses? Ignored bets? Listened to others? So on and so on. As a result each time this is done your internal conflict is resolved on the side of your underlying belief and you are proven correct. Told you so ..... Finally the more they change and search the more out of control the above. The dizzy heights of success can be followed by depths of despair all in just a few days; until there is a point when they give up and take a break, most return with a clear mind later to begin the slide downwards again when their expectations are not meet. The interesting part of the exercise is that most will then employ the exact same methods to obtain the next best thing and expect different results.

Punters have to get their mind into a correct frame, the only way I know how to is to prove beyond reasonable doubt that their method works (on paper) and in real life without pressure of actually punting, and then approach their punt in a consistent manner regardless of short term results. That takes resolve that most don't have! That coupled with a realistic expectation and understanding and good approach to wagering will give you what you need. Sadly our success has nothing to do with the amount of work you put in if your tools or frame of mind are flawed.

There is a lot more to this then I can write here, but I hope that I have conveyed enough. It certainly is something that we try to assist our clients with.