ugh, I just penned an hour long page and lost it by hitting the wrong button, oh the joys of progress
Well I won't go through the whole thing again, suffice to say in a nutshell....
Lay early for a fixed liability, wait for the team or player to drift or firm in the market and then back it just before the event.
You will look red on one side and green on the other.
The advantage is in the drift.
Over time, these drifts get out of hand as the market jumps all over the firming selection.
I got the data for soccer and took the odds at a certain time before kickoff, then did the trades just before the game. The longterm result was a massive profit.
Did the same on AFL, NRL, Tennis and Cricket.
Same method, same result.
I'd strongly suggest getting the data and running the simulations, it's mind blowing!
* I've been using this method on horseracing for the past two years successfully, however, australian markets have no liquidity early which sent me looking at sports in addition to UK markets.