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Quote:

Originally Posted by Mark

Hi Ray, go for value from your prices.

Bourne v Hudd, B were top pick but under as was the draw. Loss.
******** V Tott, T top pick, laid A & draw. Loss.
Bright V Stoke, B top pick, draw was under, laid draw. Loss.
Burn v Swan, B top pick and overs, laid S & draw. Win.
Cryst v Ever, C top pick slightly under, laid and made draw worst way. Loss.
Leic v Man C, prices were almost exact to BF. No bet.
Liver v South, L top pick but unders, also laid S. Loss.
Man U v Newc, Again prices almost exact to BF. No bet.
Watf, W Ham, Wat top pick and value, laid draw & WH. Win
W Brom v Che, C top pick but under, also laid draw. Loss

6 losses & 2 wins for me.
Will get it back next week.

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I look at betting a bit differently. First I look for value in the favourite, that is, seeing if the bookmaker odds exceed mine for the favourite. If not, I look for value in the underdog, seeing if the bookmaker odds exceed mine for the underdog. Otherwise, there would be no bet. If there is a small value bet, there would still be no bet, using 1/2 Kelly. The value bet can be split between the team and a draw to break even on draw.

Last week I only found 4 value bets. There was value in supporting Burnley and Watford, both of which cashed. There was value supporting Tottenham, but that was a loss. There was value supporting Brighton. If the bet was split on win and draw, that bet broke even. If the bet was only on a win, that bet was a loss. Using 1/2 Kelly to allocate the total bet, I calculated a profit either betting only to win or betting to win with a smaller bet to draw.

I am rooting for your comeback in week lucky 13!

Ray Stefani