Steel Prince is the other horse currently holding a ballot exemption for the 2019 Melbourne Cup. For the first time, this was on account of a win in May's Listed 2800m Andrew Ramsden. The internationalisation of The Cup has been a hot button topic in recent times and the addition of this race to those offering ballot exemption was largely to more easily provide a pathway for an Australian runner.

A 'pathway for an Australian trainer' is perhaps more accurate. Steel Prince after all was bred and raced in Ireland. Locals buying interest in internationals on Cup-eve is the new trend, so give it a couple of years and the bulk of entrants in the Andrew Ramsden will likely be those very same looking for another chance. It's very much a short-term band-aid solution, when the actual answer is to provide a racing calendar that gives endurance horses a chance at a career.

None of that should reflect on Steel Prince's win in the Andrew Ramsden, however. As noted in the Surprise Baby profile, it was a close and exciting battle: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YsfrIGsXys. Steel Prince's win closed out a remarkable 5yo 2018/19 Season: 11 races comprising 7 wins and 4 seconds.

His Australian career started at BM70 level (after winning his maiden in Ireland as part of a short non-descript career; including a loss in his debut to Homesman). Once he hit the 2400m distance he looked a real prospect though.

He then got caught up in the Darren Weir scandal and was part of a diaspora that saw him end up with Lee Freedman. This new partnership began with him stringing 5 wins together, including the Andrew Ramsden, and a rise of 20 rating points.

Surprise Baby was favourite in that race, following a narrow loss to Steel Prince earlier that month and a 6.5kg swing in his favour in the weights this time around. Though there was only 0.1L in it at the finish line, Surprise Baby ran nearly 4 lengths longer over the course, so Steel Prince could have been said to be lucky. I think it moreso says something about the competitor Steel Prince is; the Best Bets race comment has it that he "refused to lose".

So Steel Prince was first into the Melbourne Cup; though it wasn't such a sure thing for quite some time. There were delays in awarding prizemoney for the race and rumours swirled that they had found something in the swabs taken. For a time Surprise Baby was best backed for the Cup, with the suspicion he was about to be elevated to Ramsden winner and take the ballot exemption. It turned out this was all for nought though, with the prizemoney finally coming through with no official concerns and Surprise Baby winning exemption through the Bart Cummings (though those who moved early would still be happy with the odds they got earlier on in the piece).

The big advantage of winning the Ramsden was being able to plot your program to the Cup without having to stress about qualifying. This was particularly advantageous for Steel Prince as according to his trainer: "He's a European horse and the more you run them the more dour they get". The plan was his fourth run of this campaign to be the Melbourne Cup. With his next race this Saturday's Herbert Power Stakes it means he'll likely skip the Caulfield Cup, for which he still holds a nomination.

This is his first Group 2 race and his first against such weighty opposition: and it will only get tougher as none of these are higher than 26 in the order of entry. Last year's 3rd placegetter Prince of Arran makes his return, as does Ebor Cup favourite Raheen House. Both of these also appear to have received some handicap favours, carrying 1.5-3kg less than their British Official Ratings would imply. Despite this Steel Prince is the $3.90 favourite.

I find it hard to see him winning this Saturday, unless he improves lengths on what he's shown before. That's certainly not impossible given his trajectory but, given the top 6 are all weighted per their Melbourne Cup handicaps, if there isn't that improvement - or at least excuses - then it's hard to see him succeeding there either.

On the positive side, he's another with the magic 17 Stamina figure. He's also one of the few that survived the genealogy filtering I do (looking at ancestors Conduit Indexes, GSV figures, Dosage and other nonsense). Only he and Southern France survived the process (with Cross Counter missing out on account of the weight he'll carry).

His Dosage Profile is (3-6-21-8-0) with DI of 1.05 and CD of 0.11. This would imply that up to 3200m should be fine. His Conduit Mare Profile is (3-9-1-8-9), with Speed 12, Stamina 17 and Conduit Index of 0.59 and Triads of (13-18-18); say: 2400m is ideal?

Currently at $26 in Futures betting and it seems fair for mine, that that would stay the same until race day, unless he shows marked improvement this weekend. I don't think he'll be among "the system's" top picks, having already won 8 career races, for one thing. If I were pressed to pick where he'll finish, I'd go midfield, give or take.