Magic Wand certainly doesn't make a habit of winning, with only 2 victories across her 18 starts. Each of these were mid last year in sex and age-restricted company. 0 wins from 10 Group 1s makes for worrying reading. Though her trainer contends that's due to the quality of her opposition, rather than lack of ability on her part.

She has certainly shown some good spirit in being amongst the placings for a lot of her runs. In her current campaign - a series of 7 races thus far that stretches back to March and will continue this weekend with the Cox Plate and thence to the Melbourne Cup - she's only missed a podium finish twice. In those misses she really bombed: pulling out of the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes and finishing 10 lengths adrift in the Dubai Sheema Classic.

Magic Wand has just had the one qualifying performance: the 2018 G1 Prix Vermeille in which she came 2nd (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bMdeXPTXwls). Showing some impressive speed in the straight, she was narrowly beaten by Kitesurf (who was up against Marmelo two races earlier, going down there by 2.75L while carrying 1.5kg less over 2800m. Kitesurf went on to the British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes where Magical beat her by 5 lengths; arguably about square given that Kitesurf was carrying 3kg more).

Though Magic Wand qualified via that race, she's pretty much coming because of her results in another: in the Irish Champion Stakes she finished 2.25L behind Magical at equal weights (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqdcNvXb1po).

Magical has been a very consistent and high-achieving runner. She's not been far off stars Enable and Crystal Ocean this season, with her official handicap hovering around 122-123 across all runs. Given Magic Wand's official handicap going into the Champion Stakes was 111, connections would have been stoked with her performance. Perhaps just as much by also edging out Anthony Van Dyck with his 118 handicap (carrying 1.5kg less than the first two). Magic Wand's handicap was bumped up to 114 but if this race was indicative of future performances, then it may have been underestimated. She's currently weighted to her rating in the Cup, but this was probably a 121-performance: potentially leaving her with a very friendly handicap.

It was a race over 2000m though, a distance where she may have no wins, but does hold a 6-from-6 place rate. At longer distances it's a little more spotty. Up to 2400m - the furthest she's raced - it's 1 win & 1 place from 6 attempts. Her record also seems to imply she's better on solid ground, so might bear watching given the forecast rain this weekend.

The other race of hers worth examining is also over 2000m. In the Wolferton Stakes she finished just ahead of Latrobe: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEkwgqn0NQQ. Though it's probably a little on the short side for him, it goes to show that he wouldn't want to give Magic Wand a headstart in the Cup.

The winner of that race, Addeybb, just finished 2nd to Magical in the Champion Stakes last weekend, with Anthony Van Dyck in 3rd. The form is franked; but whether the form can be reproduced, is the question.

Lending further weight to her trainer's argument that her poor win record is due to the quality of her opposition: in the US she had a couple of 2nd places to Bricks And Mortar, who looks to be a candidate for the American Horse of the Year. He's 5 wins from 5 starts this year, with 4 of those coming at Group 1 level. He's also rated at 120 in the Longines World's Best Racehorse Rankings, which makes him the second-highest-rated U.S.-based horse. His breeding rights were recently sold to Shadai Farm in Japan, who were looking to replace Deep Impact. In Magic Wand's most recent race against Bricks and Mortar she carried 1.5kg less (i.e. less than the 2kg mare's allowance) and finished within a length, the time within a second of the race record and the fastest for nearly 25 years: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io0PLy6rhzc

Travel shouldn't be a bother. She's done a fair bit for her age: Ireland, England, France, USA 3 times, UAE and now to Australia.

Her ability over the distance seems the real concern, given her performance record. Looking at her figures it appears that she should do fine though. Her Dosage Profile is (3-4-19-12-0) with DI 0.77 and CD of -0.05. That's all very similar to Marmelo. Her Conduit Mare Profile is (5-7-1-10-10), with Speed 12, Stamina 20, Index of 0.58 and Triads (13-18-21), which again is quite similar to Marmelo's only even more suited to further, given the points in the Professional category.

She's currently languishing towards the bottom of the table per 'the system' though that will likely change this weekend. Magic Wand is going to remain a mare (so will miss a point there) but she'll definitely pick up some others. The field size will be greater than 10 (+1), she's currently at $14 in Cox Plate betting (if it stays under $16, as you'd expect after emergencies are ruled out, then that's another +1) and were she to do well on Saturday her Melbourne Cup price will definitely shorten from the current $41 (+1 if she finishes up <= $21; which is closer to her true odds IMO). Suddenly she's on 9 points - and is in the half of the field the winner is likely to come from (I'm not sure the system will be much help this year! )

I think she's a great prospect this weekend with her first up record, her past performances over the distance and how she could compare very favourably to others on her peak effort. The issue might again be the quality of her opposition.... Still, at this very moment, I'd have her among those whom I'm most interested in for the Cup.