6yo B Gelding

Medicean (GB) - Qelaan (USA) [By Dynaformer (USA)]

20s: 4-3-3

Mustajeer won this year's renewal of the Ebor Handicap and it was a particularly strong race, given that the prizemoney had been increased to 1 million pounds. It was also the fastest run race since 1998, though the distance does seem to shuffle about slightly from year-to-year.

He was 10th in betting at $17, beating two at $26. Also in the large field of 22 runners were Melbourne Cup nominees Red Galileo⁴², Raymond Tusk²⁶, True Self³⁸, Prince Of Arran²³ and Raheen House³⁹. Mustajeer ran from barrier 2 and stuck to the fence in a slightly worse than midfield position. On entering the straight, the field switched to the outside rail and Mustajeer basically had everyone move out of his way so that he could run on: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5gkgBmRKAE. It was a charmed ride where he likely took the shortest route of the field. Consequently others were given more credit for their runs following the race. Foremost among these: Raymond Tusk who had a particularly rough time of it but finished well in 4th.

Leading up to the Ebor, Mustajeer had some pretty ordinary looking runs up against Magical, finishing 12 lengths behind in each. Both races were over 2000m though and he seemed to fare far better once the distance got up to the 2800m mark.

The first of these was the Vintage Crop stakes: https://twitter.com/RacingTV/status/1122606753957470208. Mustajeer edges ahead of Master of Reality who then fights back to win by a neck. Southern France is 0.75L further back in 3rd position. Mustajeer was carrying 0.5kg more than both here, whereas he will carry 0.5kg less in the Cup. It should be noted though that Master of Reality and Southern France were both 1st up after 5-6 months off. Twilight Payment was also safely held, two lengths adrift with no weight change between this and the Cup.

Twilight Payment switched it up in their next tussle over 2800m, winning the Curragh Cup: https://twitter.com/RacingTV/status/1144678404891058181. Again at level weights (62kg!), Mustajeer this time finished a 3.5L 5th. The difference may have been in the track surface with a Good here, and a Yielding in the other - Twilight Payment looks to prefer the former and perhaps Mustajeer the latter. Other notables in the same race were Latrobe (2nd nk) and Southern France (4th 3.25L).

Australian Bloodstock has bought him and were reported as saying he was their best Caulfield Cup chance. He went on to finish there a 1.8L 6th. From the start he drifted back towards the rear, as is his wont. Those running on from the rear looked to have some advantage with the 1st and 2nd finishers in 15th and 17th position for much of the race, before they came wide and made their move after the 800m. Mustajeer could have made the same move as that pair (Mer de Glace and Vow And Declare) but instead was held up by them and couldn't get going until there was too much left to do. Constantinople had pretty much the same chequered run and is the $7 Cup favourite. Admittedly he was effected slightly more and managed to quickly put half a length on Mustajeer (but then couldn't pull any further away). Mustajeer is at $19 and there isn't that much between the two. I reckon Constantinople is unders...

I don't think that Mustajeer is overs. I don't like how he tends to race at the rear, particularly given his figures. His Conduit Mare Profile is (5-6-5-9-5), Speed = 11, Stamina = 14, Index = 0.88 and Triads of (16-20-19). Only Delta Blues and Americain have won this century with a Stamina figure that low. He's not going to race like Delta Blues did; maybe he has more of a(n Americain) chance if the track is Slow. In either case, both of those winners had better Brilliant figures to counter that lower Stamina. Also, the only winner this century with a higher Conduit Mare Index was Prince of Penzance (though he does tie with Americain: who had 4 straight victories leading into the Cup and had already raced at 3000m or longer 8 times; so little distance concerns there).

He doesn't really pique my interest. While the race may fall into his lap - like the Ebor did - I feel that there are better candidates to take it out. $21 seems about right to me.