Hunting Horn
4yo B Horse
Camelot (GB) - Mora Bai (IRE) [By Indian Ridge (IRE)]
22s: 3-2-5
Hunting Horn took out yesterday's Moonee Valley Gold Cup. The track record was set last year by Ventura Storm; he came 10th in last year's Melbourne Cup. Who Shot Thebarman won in 2017; scratched from Cup. Grand Marshal won in 2016; 11th in Cup. The United States in 2015; 14th in Cup.
There are actually Melbourne Cup systems that include "did not win the Moonee Valley Cup" as a filter. Aspro's Melbourne Cup System has been posted to Racing & Sports each year:
Rule 1 - List any Cup acceptor placed in either the Caulfield Cup and Mackinnon Stakes (now irrelevant moved to finals day)
Rule 2 - List any Cup acceptor placed 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup
Rule 3 - List any acceptor who was placed 1-2-3 in the Melbourne Cup at their last cup run
Rule 4 - List the Lexus Stakes winner
Rule 5 - Delete any horse whose last run in the Melbourne Cup was an unplaced run.
Rule 6 - Delete any horse who is aged 3yo or 7yo or older.
That system hasn't done so well the last couple of years as it's skewed to determine the best local contenders, omitting the foreign raiders debuting in the Cup itself. This year only Downdraft would qualify through the race - and then only if they're lucky with acceptances falling their way.
Hunting Horn has very much been Magic Wand's shadow. Most often competing on the same program, if not contesting the same race; as was the case yesterday when Magic Wand was also at the Valley and finished 4th in the Cox Plate. Hunting Horn tends to go in 2400m races with Magic Wand around 2000m.
When they have gone head-to-head, Magic Wand has the supremacy in the shorter distances and Hunting Horn the longer:
11Aug - 2000m: Magic Wand - 2nd 2.25L, Hunting Horn - 8th 11L
14Sep - 2000m: Magic Wand - 2nd 2.25L, Hunting Horn - 8th 7.45L
11May - 2200m: Magic Wand - 3rd 0.75L, Hunting Horn - 4th 1L
27Jul - 2400m: Hunting Horn - 5th 9.55L, Magic Wand - 11th 50.45L
30Mar - 2400m: Hunting Horn - 4th 10.25L, Magic Wand - 5th 10.35L
Hunting Horn carried 1.5kg extra in all bar the last, which was a 2kg difference.
Yesterday's run was the furthest he's travelled. His two previous wins were over the 2000m. While not winning over 2400m he had an OK record: 0 wins and 4 places from 8 starts.
It was also the 10th run of his current campaign, which stretches all the way back to January of this year. He hadn't won any of his preceding 14 races, though 11 of these were at Group 1 level . The trick is to put Ryan Moore aboard: he's the only jockey to ever win on him (8 starts for 3 wins and 3 places).
His Dosage Profile is (2-13-12-8-1) with DI 1.4 and CD 0.19, so about 3000m looks ideal there. His Conduit Mare Profile is (5-4-3-8-8) with Speed 9, Stamina 16, Index 0.63, and Triads (12-15-19). Which looks suited to around about the same.
Yesterday was a very slow-run race:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8hCB3c7XjWU. It was 5 seconds slower than Ventura Storm's effort of 2018 (who was also in the field this year). What wasn't slow was the last 600m, which was nearly 2 seconds quicker than 2018.
Given the pace of the race, it says very little about these horses' staying ability. With no-one making a move from the rear until it's too late, it was pretty much just a contest between the first four runners. Though Hunting Horn has a 109 Australian rating, the Irish official ratings have him at 115. Shraaoh (107), Mr Quickie (108) and Ventura Storm (102) were going to do it pretty tough - particularly when Hunting Horn carried as much or up to 1kg less than all of these! I'd hope to have seen a Mer de Glace level of acceleration with that kind of discrepancy.
Since the Moonee Valley Gold Cup is a useless form guide, how about some other races? Discounting anything under 2400m...
If the Chester Vase Stakes hadn't happened so long ago (May 2018, as a 3yo) it would have been helpful. In that race over 2400m he was 3L behind Dee Ex Bee and 0.5L in front of Ispolini. Hunting Horn and Ispolini are currently at equal weights in the Cup, but any penalty for yesterday's win will be announced tomorrow. I'll doubt he'll get anything.
Earlier this year he was in the Amir Trophy in Doha against Raymond Tusk, beating him by a length:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHXVKFhY7Ec. He outpaces Raymond Tusk in the straight - who did a little more work in his run - but the latter will get 1kg back in the Cup.
A month after that he and Magic Wand were up against each other in the Dubai Sheema Classic:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOnucwtMz1Y. Hunting Horn edges out Magic Wand despite being a rank outsider, carrying 2kg more and less suited to the distance. Magic Wand was first up though. They were both 10 lengths back from Old Persian, who left them in his dust with the 300m to go.
This is a long post, not so much cause there's plenty to say, moreso that there isn't a whole lot of substance to go on. I'm inclined to think that Hunting Horn is a couple of classes below Europe's top runners and that there's a couple of others in the Cup field who have accounted themselves against those better. He races forward, should get the distance but - with that 55kg weight (so far) - I'd hope that he was a bit more accomplished than having just 3 wins from 22: none of those at Group 1 level and his only one at Group 2 level being in an extremely week race. I guesstimate that he finishes somewhere between 10th and 15th.