4yo B Horse

High Chaparral (IRE) - Dancing Shoes (IRE) [By Danehill (USA)]

12s: 3-3-1

Raymond Tusk is a character in the US TV Series House of Cards, a billionaire industrialist with an interest in nuclear power. Is his horse namesake about to go thermonuclear in the Melbourne Cup?

He's a syndicated horse whose company decided to steer towards the Cup after fielding plenty of offers to purchase from Australian groups. They figured that Raymond Tusk must have something going for him, so elected to take him to Melbourne themselves. They made a tactical pass on the Caulfield Cup, trusting that natural attrition would be enough to scrape into the field. In the end, they're well in; currently lying at 21st in the Order of Entry.

Raymond Tusk has the 3rd lowest eligible winnings from those comprising the Top 24. The bulk of that prizemoney is from his sole Group-level win: in Milan. That was also his last victory - just 5 races ago - but a year and a day ago today. There were only 5 horses in the race and it wasn't a comprehensive victory: the first 3 finishing within 1 length. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrw7m6VvxZc. I'm not one for analysing a horse's action, but....that's a pretty impressive action he has.... It's hard to judge the quality of the race. The two placegetters were German horses with current ratings of 106 (+2.5kg) and 111 (+1kg). Raymond Tusk was a 3 year old and they were 1-2 years older. Third hasn't raced since; second finished 2nd in two Listed races in August.

He had a few months off before resuming in the Amir Trophy in Doha, which also featured Hunting Horn: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHXVKFhY7Ec. Held over 2400m, Raymond Tusk finished 1.25L behind Hunting Horn at level weights; he'll carry 1kg less in the Cup. As noted in Hunting Horn's profile, he ran past Raymond Tusk easily enough in the straight.

Raymond Tusk returned to English shores and tried his luck in Group 1 company, finishing 2nd to Dee Ex Bee (3.25L) and then 3rd to Crystal Ocean (5L). In the former race, Raymond Tusk only lost contact in the last furlong of the 2 miles: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTB83JxeATo. Dee Ex Bee also went on to win his next race, then finish 2nd to Stradivarius in his following three Group 1s, a series of runs which also saw his rating go up 4 points. RT carried 2.5kg more than the winner in their race, so it was an impressive run all round.

In the second race Raymond Tusk went back to 2400m and Crystal Ocean put on a bit of a clinic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3hekfPUxHo. It was a deserved margin given the $1.20 starting price, and Raymond Tusk couldn't stay with him for the last 2 furlongs.

Next race was the 4000m Gold Cup: not only his longest contested distance, but also his first encounter with a Soft track. He finished 7th of 11, 8 lengths adrift: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IB69t2__p9w. 7L ahead of him were fellow Melbourne Cup candidates Master of Reality and Cross Counter; though he will get back 1.5kg and 3.5kg respectively. I'm not sure his high knee lift running style would be suited to wet tracks either.... That performance was pretty much expected though, per a stable spokesman ahead of the race: "He is still 6lb short of Stradivarius. If somebody said to me he will finish within six lengths of him, I would take that now, because that might be third - but it could easily be sixth." After the race they agreed that he didn't stay out the trip and his opposition were too classy.

His current odds - now $18! - are pretty much due to his Ebor Cup results. The stable said the 2800m was far more suitable and his performance bore that out: drawn the carpark he raced towards the rear, then was held up in the straight from last position, but still ended up a 2-length 4th. He definitely had the best run in the race, in arguably the strongest Ebor run ever and in the fastest time: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5gkgBmRKAE.

In the Melbourne Cup he gets 1.5kg back from Red Galileo (2nd 0.75L) and 2.5kg back from Mustajeer (1st). Prince Of Arran (+0.5kg) and Raheen House (-1kg) were well held and won't be weighted too dissimilar in the Cup. True Self got a friendly handicap though, only finishing 1 length further back and 2kg better off were he to win his way through the Hotham Handicap.

The stable reckoned 2800m was more his distance. Per his pedigree stats, his Dosage Profile is (3-8-34-4-1) with DI 1.27 and CD 0.16. That says around 3100m. His Conduit Mare Profile is (6-8-1-12-5) with Speed 14, Stamina 17, Index 0.91 and Triads (15-21-18). Say, around 2600m? 14 is the highest Speed figure left in the Cup field, though he shares that mark with Rostropovich, Ispolini and Neufbosc. His Stamina figure hits that magic number 17...

I don't mind him. He carries 1kg less than his rating says that he should. He meets many of those he's gone up against lately better at the weights. He has that 17 Stamina, survived my rejigged pedigree filtering, and has sighted the Cup distance. I would however, want him to be on a dry track and to be drawn well inside for a cushy run closer to the speed. His good Ebor run was 1st up after a 4 month spell and it's been just over 2 months since then, so that break ahead of the Cup shouldn't be too much of a problem. He does seem to be a just a smidge below the real high-flyers though and would need some things to go his way. Should include in trifectas and first fours, to my mind.