6yo B Gelding

Teofilo (IRE) - Dream On Buddy (IRE) [By Oasis Dream (GB)]

24s: 5-9-5

Owner Lloyd Williams and trainer Joseph O'Brien join together again, as they did to great success in 2017 with Rekindling. O'Brien hasn't long been Twilight Payment's trainer though, just in his last race, with the horse switching from John Bolger.

His last race wasn't especially impressive, though he was in good company there: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUgzyvSbDrA In the Irish St Leger he finished in 7th position 6.25L back. It wasn't quite as bad as it looked though with Search For A Song surprising the field and going on with it after sneaking away with a lead. Only Kew Gardens was able to bridge the gap somewhat, and then soon after came 'the also-rans', all finishing within 2.5 lengths. Among this bunch were Southern France, Cross Counter, Master Of Reality, Latrobe and Twilight Payment. They were all at level weights here but there will be some changes for the Cup. That's not the case with respect to Latrobe, but Twilight Payment will otherwise be 0.5kg better off against Southern France and Master of Reality, and 2.5kg better off against Cross Counter.

Williams wasn't that disappointed in his performance, claiming that he needed the run and had not long switched stables. There may be some argument that he didn't enjoy the conditions either. The ground wasn't effected much (conditions only changed from Good-to-Firm to Good after the race), but there was torrential rain just ahead of their run.

His three preceding races, each also over 2800m, are the ones that bear looking at. They seem to show that there's not much between the Williams runners.

Twilight Payment vs Master of Reality: -1.75L carrying 0.5kg more and +5.25L carrying 1kg more

Twilight Payment vs Southern France: -0.75L carrying 0.5kg more and +3.25L at level weights

Twilight Payment vs Latrobe: +nk at level weights

Bonus:

Twilight Payment vs Mustajeer: -1.4L and +3.5L, both at level weights

The Curragh Cup was his best performance and that was held over the same course as the St Leger Stakes. The most I can find of the race is here: https://www.racingtv.com/news/twili...ger-and-manning. What's different between this and the St Leger Stakes? He's leading in this one (by 3 lengths at the midway point per a race comment) and he's also well into his campaign. His record has him at 0 wins from 10 first or second up races. In 8 of those he placed, but one was when he was still a maiden and the rest were only 5-8 horse fields. Is that a character of the horse, or by virtue of his previous trainer's programming? We don't know...

His official Irish rating jumped to 113 after his last race but that presumably was only due to those he finished around in the St Leger Stakes: 5 lengths away from where it would have mattered. The previous 2 years has seen his rating hover between 105 and 110, which consequently seems a likelier estimate. Particularly for a mature horse.

His Dosage Profile is (1-4-15-6-0), with DI 0.93 and CD 0: 3600m looks the ticket. He's had 3 runs over the Cup distance with 1 win and 2 placings from 3 attempts, all at black type. His Conduit Mare Profile also indicates the longer, the better: (2-7-2-9-10) with Speed 9, Stamina 19, Index 0.42 and Triads (11-18-21).

His past race record looks impressive with some big names popping out and he seems to mix it with Lloyd's other runners when conditions favour, but you feel that if something wonderful were to happen in his career, it would have already happened. His current odds are $61, which do seem a little high though. Somewhere between the Latrobe ($17) and Southern France ($34) marks seems a better estimate.

He looks a bit dour (only Ethereal has won with a higher Stamina figure). I find it hard to picture him running the leader down in the straight but I could see him leading into the straight and having to be run down. You'd think given the size of the field that it would be difficult to get into that position firstly, and that there then would be someone who had had a cushy enough run to have enough in the tank to overhaul him. While he could sneak a place if conditions suit, I'm more inclined to think he'll finish around 10th.