4yo GR Gelding

Mastercraftsman (IRE) - Nonsuch Way (IRE) [By Verglas (IRE)]

13s: 3-2-1

He's not given much chance by the market, Neufbosc has the longest odds in the race. Prince of Penzance won at $100 in 2015, why not Neufbosc at $126?

Let's look at his pedigree. His Dosage Profile is (1-13-6-0-0), DI 5.67 and CD 0.75. Oh. His DI and CD are higher than any winner this century. He looks more like a 1400m runner. 6 of the 38 placegetters had a higher CD - and one of these at $101 - so it's not impossible. Just unlikely.

He looks slightly better with his Conduit Mare Profile of (6-8-1-9-7), Speed 14, Stamina 16, Index 0.88 and Triads (15-18-17). Though Prince of Penzance still looks the most similar to him of recent winners...

Neufbosc was a French runner with some handy European form; mid last-year he finished a close second to Kew Gardens over 2400m. Behind him in that race was Dee Ex Bee (3 lengths further back) and Downdraft (14 lengths). Downdraft is at $16 for Tuesday's race. The race prior, he had beaten Ispolini by 4 lengths. The race following, he started favourite but was just beaten by Hunting Horn by 1.5L. Hunting Horn is at $31.

He was such a prospect that his final European start was last year's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.

....did they ship the right horse? (To be honest, I actually spent some time trying to compare video to see if it was. Because he's a grey, his colour has changed markedly as he's aged; he looked waaaay more brown when he was at his best overseas as a 3 year old).

He was gelded sometime soon after his arrival but it didn't seem to do him any favours. He's had 5 starts in Australia over 1400m to 2400m and not finished any better than 7th or any closer than 4.5 lengths.

The Geelong Cup is probably the best guide as to his current ability: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQ1XfgvsESk. He runs along the rail in 4th position with the field going at a moderate tempo. Rounding the final turn he's left behind a wall of horses and: it doesn't seem to matter. He never really threatens to run on. The speed that his figures said he should have has been totally lacking in his Australian races thus far.

Luckily for him, his Melbourne Cup handicap was based on his European performances from last year. Unlucky for those who missed out on a Cup position, he's not running anything up to that standard. His last official French rating was 112. His Australian rating is currently 105 and very kind. The handicapper wasn't to know his form would turn dire. When weights were released for the Cup Neufbosc had only had two runs, each of which over unfavourable distances, so his poor results in those were anticipated.

Given his current form, given that he's carrying 2.5kg more than his rating says he should, given his barrier (#23), and given how different his prep is to when he was performing well in France, he looks likely to finish within the last handful. It seems very unlikely that he'll suddenly bring this kind of form: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gv4usV7wwdE (Neufbosc's jockey is in white with a purple cap). He'd be among the favourites if he did; but it seems an impossible ask to turn it all around.