Downdraft
4yo B Horse
Camelot (GB) - Cinnamon Rose (USA) [By Trempolino (USA)]
18s: 7-2-1
Apparently this guy is going to win the Melbourne Cup...
Greg Carpenter made a couple of interesting tweets after Downdraft's win in the Hotham Handicap/Lexus Stakes:
- Ten of last 13 Hotham Handicap winners have finished top ten in Melbourne Cup three days later - Six of those finishing top 5. Shocking (2009) and Brew (2000) last two to complete Hotham-Cup double.
- Factors considered in not issuing penalty were his defeats behind Southern France in Irish Leger Trial and Hunting Horn in MV Gold Cup last two runs and only Hotham winner to carry more than 51.5kg in last 25 years was Prince of Arran (53kg)
I omitted a profile on Prince Of Arran last year as I ran out of time to do them all and figured he was a safe sacrifice, given he'd surely be unlikely to run his best just 3 days after his Hotham victory. If I was aware of Greg Carpenter's stat, I wouldn't have been so surprised when he ended up running into 3rd.
Prince Of Arran had a bit of a tougher time in his race, with the favourite Brimham Rocks pushing him to the line. Downdraft had a comparatively cushy run: he travelled the least distance in the field and - coming into the turn - the leader Haky (also an OTI runner) drifted away from the fence to give him a saloon passage:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBwUORaWtAY. Carif ran on for second, but the race was over at the 400m mark.
One negative is that Downdraft also ran last Saturday. Come Tuesday he'll have run 3 times inside of 11 days. Prince Of Arran didn't do that last year. Nor did Shocking. Brew very nearly did though: he came second in the Moonee Valley Cup, which was held on a Thursday at the time and so he just got an extra couple of days before the Hotham/Lexus/SAAB. Perhaps further indication of how soft Downdraft had it: both his and Brew's races were on a Soft 7 but yesterday's race was nearly 2 seconds slower.
The rise of Downdraft is only a relatively recent occurrence. OTI saw something they liked early in his career, following some meh All-Weather track performances in 2018. They held high hopes for his 3yo season but a trip to Longchamp (for the Juddmonte; the same race I linked in Neufbosc's profile) showed exactly where he stood: 15 lengths off the pace.
He didn't really hit his straps until this July. He kicked of this run of performances with a victory in a 4-horse field over 2400m, his first Listed victory and his first attempt at black type since his shellacking the previous year. Later that month he showed a very impressive finish in Her Majesty's Plate Listed Race at Down Royal:
https://youtu.be/dVO_Er0usGs?t=244. He beat 2nd by 3 lengths and put another 5 on the rest of the field. Twilight Payment had won this race the year previous, in a time 7 seconds slower.
From there it was to the St Leger Trial Stakes:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ftKx9Ym-z0. Unfortunately we don't get to see the whole race. Southern France beat him by 2 lengths at equal weights, where Downdraft beat Master Of Reality by a further 2 lengths, carrying 1kg less. Downdraft will carry 2kg less than Southern France in the Cup and gets another 1kg off Master of Reality.
Australia beckoned and after a 10 week break he resumed in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEeY4F6zRto. He finished in 3rd position, 1.5 lengths behind Hunting Horn. Downdraft carried 0.5kg more here, and will carry 1.5kg less than him in the Cup. It looks like Handicapper Carpenter was very friendly regarding penalties.... Downdraft looks like he should have probably earned 1kg, to be fair. He'll be carrying 53.5kg, 2.5kg lighter than he's ever carried before.
His Moonee Valley performance was missing the zip we saw overseas. His only prior first up win was in a 4-horse race. And the zip seemed to be back yesterday. Perhaps he needed the run.
His Dosage Profile is (4-1-16-9-0), with DI 0.76 and CD of 0. That indicates no problem with getting the distance; in fact even further may be better. He is yet to race at 3200m, but at 2800m he has one win (Listed) and one place (Group 3). His Conduit Mare Profile is (4-5-1-8-9), with Speed 9, Stamina 17, Index of 0.52 and Triads (10-14-18). He has that "magic" 17 Stamina figure and looks like a slightly more dour Marmelo; perhaps that's why I'm warming to him.
He wouldn't be stoked with his barrier. He drew #15 and 5 of his 7 victories have come from barriers 1-3. At least it was no wider, that's when things start to go bad (see
http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/sho...71&postcount=96 for more details).
Backing up after so much recent racing is the big concern, though we have no way to measure the effect. If honest reports from his trainer are that he has recuperated well and will be right to go, he looks a strong top-4 chance to me.