Latrobe
4yo BR Horse
Camelot (GB) - Question Times (GB) [By Shamardal (USA)]
15s: 3-6-1
Latrobe has drifted in betting to $26 following yesterday's barrier draw. It also might be somewhat 'out of sight, out of mind', given that he's yet to race since arriving in Australia.
He's drawn barrier #22. As can be seen in the graph posted yesterday: the past two years, the horse in barrier #22 has run an average 20m further than the horse who travelled the least distance.
Last year I did some data crunching and determined that those drawn outside barrier 15 were under-represented in the Top-4 finishers.
Ahead of the 2018 race, I noted (using data from 2000 on) that the 3 winners within the sample were all carrying <= 52kg and 11 of the 13 top-4 finishers were <= $21 despite their draw. Using those filters on the whole data set, of the 140 finishers drawn outside barrier 15, the <= $21 rule eliminated 99 candidates and missed just 1 second and 1 third (Jakkalberry and Red Cadeaux). The 'Weight <= 54kg' eliminated a further 12 for no further top-4 misses.
Applying it for 2018, it meant that Cross Counter and Rostropovich were possible winners, and that A Prince Of Arran, Yucatan and Magic Circle were potential placegetters. It ruled out 5 horses: one of whom was Finche in 4th and the rest finished 13th and worse.
In 2019, Vow And Declare remains a winning chance, with Il Paradiso, Magic Wand and Surprise Baby remaining place chances (presuming prices don't change). Latrobe doesn't make the cut currently.
I read there's some thought that he may struggle at the distance if it's hard-run. There is something to bear that out in his pedigree figures. His Dosage Profile is (2-7-19-8-0) with DI 1.06 and CD 0.08; indicating around 3300m is his best distance. But his Conduit Mare Profile, which I tend to defer to, is (4-5-4-11-4), with Speed 9, Stamina 15, Index 0.74, and Triads (13-20-19) and looks like slightly short of that. Among the winners this century, only Americain and Delta Blues have a lower Stamina figure. Americain was on a Slow track and Delta Blues' win was one of the slower times on Good. Latrobe has had 3 goes over 2800m with two second placings at Group level, so he's not without hope, but would be hoping for a moderate pace.
Latrobe came to Australia last season to contest the Cup but was withdrawn and ran in the Mackinnon Stakes instead, coming 2nd to Trap For Fools. He dropped into Sha Tin - for little success - on the way home before spelling.
Up at 2800m in the Curragh Cup (
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qE89Pj6PvEI) Latrobe got beaten by a neck by Twilight Payment (at even weights, as will be the case in the Cup), beat Southern France by 3 lengths (the latter will now carry 0.5kg more), and had another win over Mustajeer (3 lengths at the same weights).
His final European race was the 2800m Irish St Leger, finishing a 5.5 lengths 6th:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUgzyvSbDrA. The winner had put just over 2 lengths on Kew Gardens. Another 2 lengths back to a bunch all finishing within a couple lengths of each other: Southern France, Cross Counter, Master Of Reality, Latrobe and Twilight Payment. Though he would have preferred to be a wee bit closer, Latrobe is better at the weights come the Cup. Per owner Lloyd Williams after the race: "Latrobe was disappointing to the eye but not the jockey [Donnacha O'Brien]. Improvement is possible." Hardly a ringing endorsement, but there's some hope for supporters.
I think the distance is slightly beyond his best, he's a notch below the better overseas candidates, he's lacking some top end speed, and the wide barrier draw is of little help. Let's say he'll finish around 14th.