I've known lots of people - mainly but not always women I must say - who have novelty modes of betting. Favourite number is a common one. Favourite colours. Any grey horse. Jockeys named Darren. Whatever.

Let's say there are maybe 10% of bets like that on a given day. Probably more. In some big races, probably more. But let's say 10%. Well, that throws the market around quite a lot. That's a lot of dumb money. (But then there's beginner's luck...)

I was thinking that a horses' name must be one of the more predictable novelty factors. How much novelty money goes onto a horse with a novelty name? Do horses with snazzy names attract more money in the markets than their form deserves? How much novelty money goes onto Where's Dad's Cash? for instance. My daughter's selection this weekend was The Big Ask. Why? Good name. How much money goes onto The Big Ask just on that basis? I suspect it is more than you'd think. (Great win from The Big Ask - beginner's luck for my daughter.)

To a large extent it is a chaos factor because you can't predict it at all. If someone bets on a horse because they are into photography and it is named Minolta, you can't predict that. Don't have any hard stats on how many first time betters are also photography enthusiasts. But if a horse was named Big Brother, you'd be certain to get a novelty vote, and it would be a factor significant enough to matter. When you're sizing up the market before a race, perhaps you should factor in the novelty vote.

You can probably formulate some rules about this.

1. Horses with question marks (Where's Dad's Cash?) get more novelty money than horses whose names answer questions (Here's the Cash) and much more money than horses whose names are too subtle for novelty betters (Cash Cache).

2. Horses with personal proper names in them such as Call Me Lilly will attract a novelty bet proportionate to the portion of the population named Lilly. Similiarly, horses with ethnic allusions in their names (Master Pom) will attract a novelty vote proportionate to that ethnic group's representation and general standing in the community.

3. Horses with ethnic allusions AND personal names (Dutch Harry) cop a double dose.

4. A horse with a currently unpopular name like Afghan Raider is likely to be undervalued because of the inverse effect to the novelty vote.

5. Horses with names that allude to popular children's books (Our Eeyore) score lots of snugly money.

6. Some names are seasonal Amorous will attract more money in springtime.

7. Horses with names like Two Time Tart attract novelty dollars proportionate to the divorce rate.

Hermes