
4th January 2005, 08:03 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: newcastle nsw
Posts: 436
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I was idly number crunching jockey strike rates.This sent a chill through me because several similar examples popped up.
I looked in racenet and saw what appeared to be a definite bias towards certain tracks by particular jockeys.Ahhh I thought,it's the old horses for courses theory.
Here is an example....
P.Graham (who I see ride a lot around the local traps)
Muswellbrook....101 rides for 5 winners and a strike rate of 5%
Port Macquarie..146 rides for 25 winners and a strike rate of 17.1%
Sticks out like the proverbial dog's balls doesnt it ???
Except......
At Muswellbrook his total placings (including wins) are 47.This gives him an overall strike rate of 46.5%
At Port Macquarie his total placings (including wins) are 73.This gives him an overall strike rate of 50%
Over all of the tracks that he attends his total strike rate is 48.4%
Is he unlucky at Muswellbrook ?? Lucky at Port Macquarie??? Or is he simply a very consistent rider???
It's a worry this racing game.....Anyway,, my Mrs is just fixing dinner for tonight.Spiced chicken breasts.I can bet on them.
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