Hi Folks,

Long time between posts, but I've been hanging around so to speak.

crash, your analysis is well founded and exacerbated at this time of the year when we have a lot of horses returning from spells, or second up or running in what seem to unsuitable distances in these under 1400m races.

As a rule I don't discount races below 1400m, but I will discount a race wherein more than 30% of the starters are first up or second up or there are a number of horses without historical evidence of performance at the distance.

I have found races below 1400m with clearly exposed form for all horses are reasonably easy to rate. Not that I necessarily always pick the winner (bad luck happens at times) but generally, I am there or thereabouts.

Recently, Noble Gent took me on a good ride in Brisbane until last Saturday. Encierro was another that springs to mind.

So what I would recommend is not so much canceling the race because of its distance, but because of it unpredictability brought about by too many horses with question marks against them.


Cheers,
Luckyboy

__________________
Form is Temporary, Class is Permanent.