Even though I'm interested in these musings, I'm having difficulty accepting that the horses can be so meticulously or "scientifically" assessed that winning becomes REGULAR AS CLOCKWORK, which seems to be what faith in a fixed POT amounts to. It is almost as bad as the "gambler's ruin" in roulette etc (ie the winners are DUE!!). Effectively, trust in POT (especially trying to "scientifically" increase it) seems a waste of time.....as follows: let's say you had 1000 bets in a year at $1 each and you've hit 200 winners at an average of 5-1 (ie you've got 200 x $6 back=$1200 return) which is 20% profit (or POT). Now you KNOW you're on your way to "riches" because after a long trial you've cracked THE SECRET and plough in with everything you've got. You sell the house and whatever else to make "a killing" and will now put $400 on every bet (ie your $400,000 Net Worth, divided by next years 1000 bets) and will earn $80000 (20% POT) annually. Of course,even if your POT falls to 15% you'll still be happy with $60,000!!
If your POT is 10% (consistent and regular) and you HONESTLY believe it will CONTINUE to be so, then there's no reason not to "shoot for the moon". The problem is that POT is an "after the event" concept and as even the most expert "Sharemarket Gurus" put in the fine print (after boasting in the BIG print...15% Return p.a. over the Last 5 years!!!!etc), PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE.
Anyway,good punting this afternoon to one and all.